The Overmorrow — 23 October 2026

Every report in this edition is a forecast. Each describes an event scheduled or expected for Thursday 22 October and states the outcome we consider most likely, with its probability. The basis line under each report names what it rests on. Stamps show how each forecast turned out.

European Parliament · Strasbourg

Sakharov Prize Goes to Jailed Tanzanian Opposition Leader Tundu Lissu

Group leaders passed over the International Criminal Court and two Iranian sisters sentenced in Isfahan. Metsola announced the choice in the chamber before Thursday’s votes.

Lissu is the laureate: 55% Did not happen · match 45%

The European Parliament awarded its 2026 Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought to Tundu Lissu, chairman of Tanzania’s Chadema party, who has been in detention since April 2025 and faces a treason charge that carries the death penalty. President Roberta Metsola announced the decision in the Strasbourg hemicycle immediately after the Conference of Presidents met on Thursday morning.

The Conference of Presidents, made up of Metsola and the leaders of the political groups, chose from a shortlist that the Foreign Affairs and Development committees settled on Monday. The other finalists were the International Criminal Court and its staff, nominated by the Socialists and Democrats, and Taraneh and Romina Rahimi, sisters arrested after the January protests in Isfahan, nominated by Patriots for Europe.

Lissu had the support of the European People’s Party and the European Conservatives and Reformists, the two groups whose combined weight decides most Conference votes. A prize for the ICC would have been read in Washington as a direct answer to the US sanctions on the court, which MEPs debated on Tuesday. Several centre-right members were reluctant to send that signal two weeks before the American midterms.

The Rahimi nomination drew sympathy across the chamber. Taraneh Rahimi has been sentenced to death and her sister to 25 years. Parliament named both in its 8 October resolution on Iran, and the prize could still go their way if Renew Europe joined the right-wing groups behind them.

The laureate receives €50,000. The award ceremony is set for 16 December in Strasbourg. Tanzanian authorities are not expected to let Lissu travel.

Tundu Lissu	55%
Taraneh and Romina Rahimi	30%
International Criminal Court	15%

Basis: Shortlist voted 19 October; nominating groups as reported by Agence Europe and Euronews; Metsola’s announcement scheduled for 22 October. Main uncertainty: how Renew votes in the Conference of Presidents.

Prague · Chamber of Deputies

Budget Clears First Reading With a CZK 386 Billion Deficit

Approved by Thursday night: 85% Came true · match 85%

After a debate that began on Wednesday and ran into the night, deputies approved the main parameters of the 2027 state budget: revenue of CZK 2.199 trillion, spending of CZK 2.585 trillion and a deficit of CZK 386 billion, the second highest since 1993. The coalition of ANO, SPD and the Motorists, with 108 of 200 seats, voted down the opposition proposal to send the bill back with the deficit capped at 290 billion.

Those totals can no longer change. Committees now discuss moving money between chapters, ahead of a second reading planned to end on 25 November.

Basis: Budget committee recommendation of 12 October; first reading scheduled for 21 October.

Prague

Unemployment Benefit Cut Still Short of Votes

Does not pass first reading this week: 75% Awaiting result

Labour Minister Aleš Juchelka’s plan to lower benefits in the first two months from 80 to 65 percent of net wage stayed stuck. SPD again refused to support it, leaving ANO and the Motorists with 93 votes. The budget already counts on almost CZK 4 billion in savings from the change.

Basis: ČT24 report on SPD opposition; ANO and Motorists hold 93 of 200 seats.

Europe

European Parliament · Votes

Parliament Endorses Chemicals Omnibus and Condemns Russian Drone Strikes

Both texts adopted: 90% Came true · match 90%

MEPs gave final approval to the Omnibus VI package agreed with the Council in June. It amends the CLP labelling rules, the Cosmetics Regulation and the Fertilising Products Regulation. Label text on chemicals sold to the public must keep an x-height of at least 1.2 mm, and suppliers get 15 months to update labels after a stricter classification. Cosmetics containing newly classified carcinogenic, mutagenic or reprotoxic substances must leave the market faster than the Commission proposed. Most CLP changes apply from 1 January 2028.

Parliament also adopted resolutions on Russian drone incursions into EU territory and strikes on Black Sea shipping, and on Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and the Gulf, after Tuesday’s debates with High Representative Kaja Kallas. It set its position on the priorities and budget of the 2028–2034 Erasmus+ programme, one of the first MFF sectoral files to reach plenary.

Basis: Plenary agenda for 22 October; provisional Omnibus VI agreement of 16 June. Most likely surprise: postponement of one resolution.

Dublin · EU trade ministers

Ministers Look for New Markets as US Tariffs Bite

No formal decisions taken: 85% Awaiting result

Trade ministers met at Dublin Castle for a two-day informal meeting hosted by Ireland’s Helen McEntee. The talks covered open free trade negotiations and diversifying trade away from the United States. Informal councils take no decisions, so the results were political signals. The EU–Canada summit on 29–30 October was the obvious next step.

Basis: Irish Presidency programme, 22–23 October.

France

Curfews Hold as Paris Prepares for Saturday

Main unions stay out of Saturday protests: 70% Awaiting result

A day after meeting Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu, the main union confederations kept their distance from the calls for new demonstrations on Saturday. They are pressing instead for talks on wages and school conditions. Targeted night curfews stayed in force in central Paris and Lyon, and the government confirmed that the army would support the police at the weekend.

Basis: Lecornu’s statements of 20 October; unions’ meeting set for 21 October.

World

Russia · Ukraine

Witkoff Leaves Russia Without a Ceasefire; Prisoner Release Still Possible

No ceasefire announced by Thursday: 90% Came true · match 90%

Hubbard release announced: 35% Came true · match 35%

A day after US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Vladimir Putin in St Petersburg, the Kremlin described the talks as useful and announced no ceasefire. Witkoff had brought proposals drawn up with Ukraine and European governments at Tuesday’s meeting in Oslo. Moscow repeated its demand that Ukraine withdraw from all of the Donetsk region before any truce, a condition Kyiv rejects.

Washington’s most concrete hope for the trip was the release of Stephen Hubbard, a 72-year-old American serving almost seven years for fighting with Ukrainian territorial defence. Russia’s foreign ministry has confirmed the case was discussed. We put the chance of his release being announced by Thursday at 35 percent. Witkoff then briefed President Zelenskyy and the European governments that took part in Oslo.

Basis: Kremlin statements of 20 October (Moscow Times); NYT and Meduza reporting on the St Petersburg meeting. The meeting itself was not confirmed by the Kremlin in advance.

Iran · Gulf

Mediators Wait on Tehran’s Answer to Inspection Deal

No agreement announced by Thursday: 70% Came true · match 70%

Qatar and Pakistan were still waiting for a formal Iranian reply to their compromise. Under it, Iran would allow an unannounced IAEA inspection of its nuclear sites and receive in return the interest on $6 billion of frozen funds held in Qatar. Both governments reportedly reacted positively, but neither side has moved on its core demands. Iranian officials still insist there will be no talks while US pressure continues.

Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remained the main risk. The UK maritime agency has called October the worst month for attacks since March.

Basis: Al-Araby Al-Jadeed report of 20 October; CBS live reporting.

Brazil · Runoff Sunday

Datafolha Shows a Tie Between Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula

Gap within two points: 65% Came true · match 65%

Datafolha’s runoff poll, published on Thursday, put the two candidates within the margin of error. The polling average gives Flávio Bolsonaro about 51 percent to Lula’s 49. The last TV Globo debate is on Friday, and the vote is on Sunday.

Basis: Rio Times poll tracker of 20 October; Datafolha release expected 22 October.

Serbia · Vote Sunday

Last Day of Campaigning Before Election Silence

SNS ahead in final polls: 60% Awaiting result

The ruling SNS and the student list held their final rallies before the campaign silence that begins 48 hours before the vote. The poll average has SNS at 45 percent and the students at 42.5. One October poll put the students ahead.

Basis: PolitPro election trend of 21 October.

Israel · Vote 27 October

Neither Bloc Reaches 61 Seats in Late Polls

Both blocs below majority: 80% Awaiting result

The final week of polling shows a deadlock. Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar narrowly leads Likud, both blocs stand near 51 to 55 seats, and Arab parties hold the balance with 10 to 14.

Basis: Seven-poll average reported by The New Arab; Channel 12 poll of 19 October.

Health · East Africa

Ebola Spreads Further as Congo Searches for Missing Aid Money

New cases reported in Kenya: 80% Came true · match 80%

The outbreak has reached eight Congolese provinces, and Kenya has confirmed eight cases. Kinshasa is investigating more than $700 million missing from aid accounts.

Basis: WORLD and O’Donnell security briefing of 19–20 October.

Weather, Thursday

Bohemia9–12°

Moravia and Silesia11–14°

Strasbourg11°

Coming Up

Sat 24 Oct Protests across France; large security operation announced.

Sun 25 Oct Presidential runoff in Brazil; parliamentary election in Serbia.

Mon–Tue 26–27 Oct AGRIFISH Council: ministers seek a partial position on the post-2027 CAP.

Tue 27 Oct Knesset election in Israel.

Wed–Thu 28–29 Oct European Parliament mini-plenary in Brussels; 28 October is a state holiday in the Czech Republic.

Thu 29 Oct ECB monetary policy decision; Energy Council in Luxembourg on network charges.

Thu–Fri 29–30 Oct EU–Canada summit.

Tue 3 Nov US midterm elections.