Tomorrow happens. Overmorrow reports it. You read it today.
Friday, 23 October 2026No. 1 · Pilot · Print editionReporting the events of Thursday 22 October
Every report in this edition is a forecast. Each describes an event scheduled or expected for Thursday 22 October and states the outcome we consider most likely, with its probability. The basis line under each report names what it rests on. Stamps show how each forecast turned out.
Results7 of 10 scored calls went our wayBrier score 0.183 (lower is better; 0.250 = always guessing 50%)5 awaiting resultMissed completelySpot onColour shows how close each forecast came: the probability we gave to what actually happened.
European Parliament · Strasbourg
Sakharov Prize Goes to Jailed Tanzanian Opposition Leader Tundu Lissu
Group leaders passed over the International Criminal Court and two Iranian sisters sentenced in Isfahan. Metsola announced the choice in the chamber before Thursday’s votes.
Lissu is the laureate: 55%Did not happen · match 45%
President Metsola announced on 22 October that the 2026 Sakharov Prize goes to the International Criminal Court and its officials; Tundu Lissu is not named (confirmed by Reuters). Evidence
The European Parliament awarded its 2026 Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought to Tundu Lissu, chairman of Tanzania’s Chadema party, who has been in detention since April 2025 and faces a treason charge that carries the death penalty. President Roberta Metsola announced the decision in the Strasbourg hemicycle immediately after the Conference of Presidents met on Thursday morning.
The Conference of Presidents, made up of Metsola and the leaders of the political groups, chose from a shortlist that the Foreign Affairs and Development committees settled on Monday. The other finalists were the International Criminal Court and its staff, nominated by the Socialists and Democrats, and Taraneh and Romina Rahimi, sisters arrested after the January protests in Isfahan, nominated by Patriots for Europe.
The shortlist and our odds
Tundu Lissu · EPP, ECR
55% Did not happen · match 45%
Taraneh and Romina Rahimi · Patriots
30% Did not happen · match 70%
International Criminal Court · S&D
15% Came true · match 15%
Lissu had the support of the European People’s Party and the European Conservatives and Reformists, the two groups whose combined weight decides most Conference votes. A prize for the ICC would have been read in Washington as a direct answer to the US sanctions on the court, which MEPs debated on Tuesday. Several centre-right members were reluctant to send that signal two weeks before the American midterms.
The Rahimi nomination drew sympathy across the chamber. Taraneh Rahimi has been sentenced to death and her sister to 25 years. Parliament named both in its 8 October resolution on Iran, and the prize could still go their way if Renew Europe joined the right-wing groups behind them.
The laureate receives €50,000. The award ceremony is set for 16 December in Strasbourg. Tanzanian authorities are not expected to let Lissu travel.
The 2026 Sakharov Prize is awarded to Tundu Lissu (alone or jointly). European Parliament press release announcing the 2026 laureate names Tundu Lissu. Deadline: Thursday 22 October, 23:59 CEST.
The 2026 Sakharov Prize is awarded to Taraneh and Romina Rahimi (alone or jointly). European Parliament press release announcing the 2026 laureate names the Rahimi sisters. Deadline: Thursday 22 October, 23:59 CEST.
The 2026 Sakharov Prize is awarded to the International Criminal Court (alone or jointly). European Parliament press release announcing the 2026 laureate names the ICC. Deadline: Thursday 22 October, 23:59 CEST.
Iran · Gulf
Mediators Wait on Tehran’s Answer to Inspection Deal
No agreement announced by Thursday: 70%Came true · match 70%
Only anonymous-source reports spoke of 'preliminary approval'; no government announced that both sides had accepted the proposal by the deadline. Evidence
Qatar and Pakistan were still waiting for a formal Iranian reply to their compromise. Under it, Iran would allow an unannounced IAEA inspection of its nuclear sites and receive in return the interest on $6 billion of frozen funds held in Qatar. Both governments reportedly reacted positively, but neither side has moved on its core demands. Iranian officials still insist there will be no talks while US pressure continues.
Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remained the main risk. The UK maritime agency has called October the worst month for attacks since March.
No US–Iran agreement based on the Qatar–Pakistan proposal is officially announced. No official announcement by the US, Iranian, Qatari or Pakistani government that both sides have accepted the proposal. Deadline: Thursday 22 October, 23:59 CEST.
Europe
Strasbourg votes, Dublin talks, Paris
European Parliament · Votes
Parliament Endorses Chemicals Omnibus and Condemns Russian Drone Strikes
Both texts adopted: 90%Came true · match 90%
The texts-adopted page was unreachable; Agence Europe reports the chemicals omnibus approved on 22 October (477–59–41) and Renew Europe and the Sofia Globe report the resolution on Russian strikes in the Black Sea, including drones, adopted the same day. Evidence
MEPs gave final approval to the Omnibus VI package agreed with the Council in June. It amends the CLP labelling rules, the Cosmetics Regulation and the Fertilising Products Regulation. Label text on chemicals sold to the public must keep an x-height of at least 1.2 mm, and suppliers get 15 months to update labels after a stricter classification. Cosmetics containing newly classified carcinogenic, mutagenic or reprotoxic substances must leave the market faster than the Commission proposed. Most CLP changes apply from 1 January 2028.
Parliament also adopted resolutions on Russian drone incursions into EU territory and strikes on Black Sea shipping, and on Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and the Gulf, after Tuesday’s debates with High Representative Kaja Kallas. It set its position on the priorities and budget of the 2028–2034 Erasmus+ programme, one of the first MFF sectoral files to reach plenary.
On 22 October Parliament adopts both the Omnibus VI provisional agreement and the resolution on Russian drone incursions and Black Sea strikes. Both texts appear as adopted in the European Parliament’s texts adopted for 22 October 2026. Deadline: Thursday 22 October, 23:59 CEST.
Dublin · EU trade ministers
Ministers Look for New Markets as US Tariffs Bite
No formal decisions taken: 85%Awaiting result
Trade ministers met at Dublin Castle for a two-day informal meeting hosted by Ireland’s Helen McEntee. The talks covered open free trade negotiations and diversifying trade away from the United States. Informal councils take no decisions, so the results were political signals. The EU–Canada summit on 29–30 October was the obvious next step.
The informal meeting of trade ministers in Dublin ends without formal Council decisions. No Council decision or formally adopted conclusions are attributed to the Dublin meeting on consilium.europa.eu or the Irish Presidency site. Deadline: Friday 23 October, 23:59 CEST.
France
Curfews Hold as Paris Prepares for Saturday
Main unions stay out of Saturday protests: 70%Awaiting result
A day after meeting Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu, the main union confederations kept their distance from the calls for new demonstrations on Saturday. They are pressing instead for talks on wages and school conditions. Targeted night curfews stayed in force in central Paris and Lyon, and the government confirmed that the army would support the police at the weekend.
None of the CGT, CFDT or FO formally calls on members to join the 24 October protests. No official call to join the 24 October demonstrations is published by the CGT, CFDT or FO national leadership by the deadline. Deadline: Friday 23 October, 23:59 CEST.
World
Ukraine, Iran, three elections in five days
Russia · Ukraine
Witkoff Leaves Russia Without a Ceasefire; Prisoner Release Still Possible
No ceasefire announced by Thursday: 90%Came true · match 90%
No government announced a general or partial ceasefire by 22 October; the Kremlin spoke only of resuming three-way talks in November. Evidence
Hubbard release announced: 35%Came true · match 35%
Russia freed Stephen Hubbard on 21 October during Witkoff's visit, as confirmed by US officials and reported by NPR, CBS and CNN. Evidence
A day after US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Vladimir Putin in St Petersburg, the Kremlin described the talks as useful and announced no ceasefire. Witkoff had brought proposals drawn up with Ukraine and European governments at Tuesday’s meeting in Oslo. Moscow repeated its demand that Ukraine withdraw from all of the Donetsk region before any truce, a condition Kyiv rejects.
Washington’s most concrete hope for the trip was the release of Stephen Hubbard, a 72-year-old American serving almost seven years for fighting with Ukrainian territorial defence. Russia’s foreign ministry has confirmed the case was discussed. We put the chance of his release being announced by Thursday at 35 percent. Witkoff then briefed President Zelenskyy and the European governments that took part in Oslo.
No Russia–Ukraine ceasefire is announced by the Russian, Ukrainian or US government. No official announcement of a general or partial ceasefire by any of the three governments by the deadline. Deadline: Thursday 22 October, 23:59 CEST.
Russia releases Stephen Hubbard, or his release is officially announced. Official US or Russian statement that Hubbard has been or will be released, made by the deadline. Deadline: Thursday 22 October, 23:59 CEST.
Brazil · Runoff Sunday
Datafolha Shows a Tie Between Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula
Gap within two points: 65%Came true · match 65%
The Datafolha poll released on 22 October (fieldwork 20–22 October) put Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula at 50% each of valid votes, a gap of zero. Evidence
Datafolha’s runoff poll, published on Thursday, put the two candidates within the margin of error. The polling average gives Flávio Bolsonaro about 51 percent to Lula’s 49. The last TV Globo debate is on Friday, and the vote is on Sunday.
Basis: Rio Times poll tracker of 20 October; Datafolha release expected 22 October. Sources: Rio Times: Brazil runoff polls.
How this claim is checked
The Datafolha runoff poll published on 22 October shows a gap of 2 points or less in valid votes. Datafolha’s valid-vote figures for the poll released on 22 October differ by 2 points or less. If no Datafolha poll is released that day, the claim resolves no. Deadline: Thursday 22 October, 23:59 CEST.
Serbia · Vote Sunday
Last Day of Campaigning Before Election Silence
SNS ahead in final polls: 60%Awaiting result
The ruling SNS and the student list held their final rallies before the campaign silence that begins 48 hours before the vote. The poll average has SNS at 45 percent and the students at 42.5. One October poll put the students ahead.
The final pre-election poll average shows SNS ahead of the student list. PolitPro’s Serbia election trend as of 23 October 2026 shows SNS ahead of Studentska lista. Deadline: Friday 23 October, 23:59 CEST.
Israel · Vote 27 October
Neither Bloc Reaches 61 Seats in Late Polls
Both blocs below majority: 80%Awaiting result
The final week of polling shows a deadlock. Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar narrowly leads Likud, both blocs stand near 51 to 55 seats, and Arab parties hold the balance with 10 to 14.
No poll published on 22 October gives either bloc 61 or more seats. Wikipedia’s opinion polling table for the 2026 Israeli election lists no poll dated 22 October with either bloc at 61+. Deadline: Thursday 22 October, 23:59 CEST.
Health · East Africa
Ebola Spreads Further as Congo Searches for Missing Aid Money
New cases reported in Kenya: 80%Came true · match 80%
Applying the criterion literally: the Ministry of Health confirmed a ninth case (announced 20 October), so the count stood above eight by the deadline, although no new case was reported on 21 or 22 October; the claim text and criterion diverged. Evidence
The outbreak has reached eight Congolese provinces, and Kenya has confirmed eight cases. Kinshasa is investigating more than $700 million missing from aid accounts.
Kenya reports at least one new confirmed Ebola case on 21 or 22 October. Kenyan Ministry of Health or WHO reports a confirmed case count above eight by the deadline. Deadline: Thursday 22 October, 23:59 CEST.
Coming Up
Fixed dates for the next fortnight
Protests across France; large security operation announced.
Presidential runoff in Brazil; parliamentary election in Serbia.
AGRIFISH Council: ministers seek a partial position on the post-2027 CAP.
Knesset election in Israel.
European Parliament mini-plenary in Brussels; 28 October is a state holiday in the Czech Republic.
ECB monetary policy decision; Energy Council in Luxembourg on network charges.
