No Bank Tax Announced as Babiš Promises Talks on Mortgages

Government announces a bank levy: 9%

Neither Prime Minister Andrej Babiš nor Finance Minister Alena Schillerová announced a new tax or levy on banks by Friday night.

In Wednesday’s budget debate Schillerová would not rule out further taxes on particular sectors and said such steps would not be announced in advance. Babiš said the government would negotiate with the banks about mortgage rates. A separate windfall tax on refineries is already before the Chamber.

Basis: Echo24 and ČTK reports of the 21 October debate. Main risk: a loose remark that banks ‘will contribute’ is reported as a plan.

Castle Keeps Names of 28 October Honours Secret

Castle publishes the honours list: 8%

Prague Castle did not publish the list of people President Petr Pavel will decorate on 28 October. The ceremony is set for 20:00 that day in the Vladislav Hall, after the appointment of generals in the morning.

Under Pavel the Castle has not released the names in advance; in past years they became known through leaks or at the ceremony itself. Reflex reported that government deputies had nominated former president Miloš Zeman.

Basis: Castle programme for 28 October; ČTK and Deník on the practice of not publishing names in advance. Main risk: a change in practice this year.

Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro Meet in Last Debate Before Sunday’s Runoff

Both candidates take part: 88%

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro faced each other in TV Globo’s final debate of the campaign on Friday night, starting at about 21:20 Brasília time at the Estúdios Globo in Rio de Janeiro. The runoff is on Sunday.

Both campaigns signed the debate rules on 20 October, according to O Tempo. Flávio Bolsonaro had said on 13 October that he was still weighing whether to attend; Lula skipped Globo’s first-round debate on 1 October.

Polls have the race within the margin of error: Datafolha gave Bolsonaro 47% and Lula 45%. In the first round on 4 October Bolsonaro received 56.1 million votes and Lula 53.9 million. On 7 October Polymarket put Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at about 84%.

Basis: Globo’s schedule and O Tempo’s report that both campaigns confirmed. Main risk: a last-minute withdrawal by the front-runner.

Final Maariv Poll Has Eisenkot’s Yashar Ahead of Likud

Likud not first in Maariv’s final poll: 77%

Maariv’s last poll before Tuesday’s Knesset election, published on Friday, showed Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar list ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud. Israeli law bars the publication of polls from the end of the Friday before election day.

Yashar has led Likud in every Maariv poll since July. The paper’s poll published on 16 October gave Yashar 21 seats and Likud 18. A Walla poll by Panel4All on 19 October had Yashar on 23 and Likud on 19, with the Netanyahu bloc at 48 seats against 54 for the opposition parties, far from the 61 needed for a majority.

The margin in Maariv has not always been wide: its 9 October poll had the two lists at 21 and 20.

Basis: Maariv and Walla polls of 16 and 19 October as reported by the Jerusalem Post; the legal poll blackout. Main risk: a late Likud rally to a tie, or Maariv publishing its last poll on Thursday.

No Date Yet for New Three-Way Talks After Witkoff’s Visit

Date for trilateral talks announced: 10%

Neither Moscow, Washington nor Kyiv named a date for a new round of trilateral talks on ending the war by Friday night.

US envoy Steve Witkoff met Vladimir Putin in St Petersburg on 21 October. Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said Russia was ‘in principle ready’ to resume trilateral talks, possibly in November and possibly in Abu Dhabi; spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin would review the documents the Americans brought. Russia released the US citizen Stephen Hubbard during the visit.

Basis: TASS and CNN on the 21 October meeting. Main risk: a date announced quickly, as after a Witkoff visit in January.

No Date Set for New US–Iran Talks

Date for US–Iran talks announced: 8%

Neither Washington nor Tehran named a date for a new round of negotiations by Friday night, with the US blockade of Iranian ports still in place and the Strait of Hormuz closed.

On 20 October Iran told Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, that there would be no talks until seven conditions were met. A day later Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said contacts with the United States continued through Pakistan and Qatar. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has welcomed the mediation.

Basis: Times Live, Express Tribune and Samaa reports of 20–21 October. Main risk: an off-the-cuff date from President Trump.

Bank of Russia Holds Key Rate at 14%

Key rate stays at 14%: 86%

The Bank of Russia left its key rate at 14% at Friday’s meeting, its seventh of eight this year, as it did in September.

Analysts at Sber, Finam, BCS and Expert RA had all expected a hold, citing rising inflation and inflation expectations; several left the door open to a cut in December. The bank’s next meeting is on 18 December.

Basis: Bank of Russia calendar; analyst surveys reported by Sberbusiness, Bankinform and Sravni. Main risk: a surprise 25-point cut.

Still No Election Date After Opposition Protest

Election date announced: 4%

Acting President Delcy Rodríguez and the electoral council did not set a date for a presidential election by Friday night, a day after the opposition led by María Corina Machado held nationwide protests demanding one.

A third round of talks between the government and the opposition has been under way in Caracas since 14 October. Rodríguez promised elections on 24 September but set no date. Polymarket gave about 9.5% for an election being scheduled by 31 December.

Basis: Rio Times and Euronews reports; Polymarket. Main risk: a deal emerging from the Caracas talks.

Paris Bans Marches in Parts of the City Ahead of ‘Act II’

Prefecture bans protests in parts of Paris: 67%

State of emergency declared: 7%

The Paris police prefecture issued an order banning demonstrations in parts of the capital for Saturday, when the gilets jaunes have called a second national day of action against the cost of living. The government did not declare a state of emergency.

The 17 October protests drew about 550,000 people, 110,000 of them in Paris, according to Le Petit Journal’s tally; 2,397 people were arrested and the town hall in Limoges was set on fire. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu ordered local curfews from 19 October in Lille, Douai, Denain and Wattignies.

The prefecture had banned demonstrations in several zones, including around the Élysée and the Champs-Élysées, for Thursday. Organisers have declared a march from Bastille to Opéra for Saturday. President Emmanuel Macron said on 21 October that the situation did not require a state of emergency.

Basis: Le Petit Journal, Europe 1 and Sortir à Paris reports; Macron’s 21 October remarks. Main risk for the ban: the order is published only on Saturday morning, or the prefecture relies on perimeters rather than a ban.

Lecornu Holds Back From 49.3 as Budget Debate Drags On

Government uses Article 49.3: 8%

The government did not invoke Article 49.3 of the Constitution on either of its budget bills by Friday night, leaving the National Assembly to continue debating the 2027 social security budget.

The Assembly began debating the social security budget on 20 October after rejecting a motion from La France insoumise to throw it out; its first-reading deadline is 27 October, after which the text can go to the Senate. The solemn vote on the revenue part of the state budget, set for 20 October, was postponed with more than 2,800 of 3,396 amendments still to be dealt with.

Lecornu used 49.3 on the 2026 budget in January and has not ruled it out this time. La France insoumise has said it will table a censure motion if he does.

Basis: LCP and Public Sénat on the budget timetable. Main risk: the government cuts the PLFSS debate short before the 27 October deadline.

British Retail Sales Slip in September

Sales volumes rose in September: 43%

Retail sales volumes in Great Britain fell in September from August in the Office for National Statistics’ first estimate, published at 07:00 on Friday.

Sales rose 0.5% in August, against expectations of a fall. Forecasters surveyed by Trading Economics expected a 0.2% fall in September. Industry surveys were mixed: the British Retail Consortium reported stronger like-for-like sales, BDO weaker ones.

Basis: ONS release calendar; Trading Economics consensus. Main risk: consensus has been wrong in both directions this year.

Eurozone Business Activity Eases From September’s High

Composite PMI at 53.0 or higher: 39%

The HCOB flash composite purchasing managers’ index for the euro area fell below 53 in October, according to S&P Global’s first estimate published on Friday morning.

In September the index rose to 53.1, against expectations of 51.5, with manufacturing at 52.7 and services at 53.0. S&P Global warned of rising input costs driven by energy prices in the Middle East. Economists expected a reading of about 52.5. The European Central Bank meets on 29 October.

Basis: September flash release as reported by FXStreet; consensus from Pound Sterling Live. Main risk: September’s strength carries over.