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Saturday, 24 October 2026No. 2 · Print editionReporting the events of Friday 23 October
Every report in this edition is a forecast. Each describes an event scheduled or expected for Friday 23 October and states the outcome we consider most likely, with its probability. The basis line under each report names what it rests on.
Chamber of Deputies · Prague
Chamber Approves 2027 Budget in First Reading Despite Opposition Delays
The coalition pushed the bill, with its CZK 386 billion deficit, through the first reading after two days of debate. Whether all of its 108 deputies turned up and voted yes was the closer question.
Budget passes first reading by Friday: 74%
At least 105 deputies vote yes: 51%
The Chamber of Deputies approved the government’s draft state budget for 2027 in first reading, fixing its basic parameters: revenue of CZK 2.199 trillion, spending of CZK 2.585 trillion and a deficit of CZK 386 billion, CZK 76 billion more than the deficit approved for this year.
The debate opened on Wednesday and ran for about 13 hours before it was interrupted after 23:15, with about two dozen deputies still signed up to speak. Opposition clubs had asked for breaks totalling almost ten hours; Finance Minister Alena Schillerová called it obstruction. The debate resumed on Thursday from about 11:00, fitted around interpellations.
ODS, STAN, TOP 09, KDU-ČSL and the Pirates moved to return the bill to the government with instructions to cap the deficit at CZK 290 billion; TOP 09 also proposed CZK 310 billion. The coalition of ANO, SPD and the Motorists holds 108 of the 200 seats, enough to reject the motions and approve the bill.
The closer question was the size of the majority. With 108 seats, the coalition could lose no more than three of its deputies to absence or dissent and still reach 105 votes, and a late-night vote tends to thin attendance. Some SPD and Motorist deputies had earlier said the deficit troubled them.
The budget committee recommended approval by 9 votes to 7 on 12 October. The committee chair’s September timetable puts the second reading at 25 November and the third at 2 December.
The Chamber of Deputies approves the 2027 state budget bill in first reading by 23:59 on 23 October. The psp.cz record of the Chamber’s session shows a passed vote approving the 2027 state budget bill in first reading, held no later than 23:59 on 23 October 2026. Deadline: Friday 23 October, 23:59 CEST.
At least 105 deputies vote in favour in the first-reading vote approving the 2027 budget, held by 23:59 on 23 October. The psp.cz record of the first-reading approval vote shows 105 or more ‘ano’ votes; if no such vote is held by the deadline, the claim resolves no. Deadline: Friday 23 October, 23:59 CEST.
France · Paris
Paris Bans Marches in Parts of the City Ahead of ‘Act II’
Prefecture bans protests in parts of Paris: 67%
State of emergency declared: 7%
The Paris police prefecture issued an order banning demonstrations in parts of the capital for Saturday, when the gilets jaunes have called a second national day of action against the cost of living. The government did not declare a state of emergency.
The 17 October protests drew about 550,000 people, 110,000 of them in Paris, according to Le Petit Journal’s tally; 2,397 people were arrested and the town hall in Limoges was set on fire. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu ordered local curfews from 19 October in Lille, Douai, Denain and Wattignies.
The prefecture had banned demonstrations in several zones, including around the Élysée and the Champs-Élysées, for Thursday. Organisers have declared a march from Bastille to Opéra for Saturday. President Emmanuel Macron said on 21 October that the situation did not require a state of emergency.
By 23:59 on 23 October, the Paris police prefecture issues an order banning demonstrations in at least part of Paris on 24 October. An arrêté of the Préfecture de police banning demonstrations in all or part of Paris on 24 October 2026, published on prefecturedepolice.interieur.gouv.fr or reported by two national outlets by the deadline. Face-covering bans or security perimeters alone do not count. Deadline: Friday 23 October, 23:59 CEST.
By 23:59 on 23 October, a decree declaring a state of emergency in all or part of France is published in the Journal officiel. A decree declaring the état d’urgence under the law of 3 April 1955 appears in the Journal officiel on Légifrance by the deadline. Deadline: Friday 23 October, 23:59 CEST.
World
Brazil’s last debate, Israel’s last poll, Ukraine, Iran, Venezuela, Moscow’s rate
Brazil · Rio de Janeiro
Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro Meet in Last Debate Before Sunday’s Runoff
Both candidates take part: 88%
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro faced each other in TV Globo’s final debate of the campaign on Friday night, starting at about 21:20 Brasília time at the Estúdios Globo in Rio de Janeiro. The runoff is on Sunday.
Both campaigns signed the debate rules on 20 October, according to O Tempo. Flávio Bolsonaro had said on 13 October that he was still weighing whether to attend; Lula skipped Globo’s first-round debate on 1 October.
Polls have the race within the margin of error: Datafolha gave Bolsonaro 47% and Lula 45%. In the first round on 4 October Bolsonaro received 56.1 million votes and Lula 53.9 million. On 7 October Polymarket put Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at about 84%.
Both Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro take part in TV Globo’s presidential runoff debate on 23 October. Globo’s coverage on g1.globo.com shows that both candidates took part in the debate broadcast on 23 October 2026 (Brasília time). Deadline: Friday 23 October, 23:59 CEST.
Israel · Knesset election
Final Maariv Poll Has Eisenkot’s Yashar Ahead of Likud
Likud not first in Maariv’s final poll: 77%
Maariv’s last poll before Tuesday’s Knesset election, published on Friday, showed Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar list ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud. Israeli law bars the publication of polls from the end of the Friday before election day.
Yashar has led Likud in every Maariv poll since July. The paper’s poll published on 16 October gave Yashar 21 seats and Likud 18. A Walla poll by Panel4All on 19 October had Yashar on 23 and Likud on 19, with the Netanyahu bloc at 48 seats against 54 for the opposition parties, far from the 61 needed for a majority.
The margin in Maariv has not always been wide: its 9 October poll had the two lists at 21 and 20.
In Maariv’s poll published on 23 October, a list other than Likud is projected to win more seats than Likud. Maariv (maariv.co.il) publishes a Knesset seat poll on 23 October 2026 in which at least one list has strictly more seats than Likud. A tie, or no Maariv seat poll published that day, resolves no. Deadline: Friday 23 October, 23:59 CEST.
Russia · Ukraine · United States
No Date Yet for New Three-Way Talks After Witkoff’s Visit
Date for trilateral talks announced: 10%
Neither Moscow, Washington nor Kyiv named a date for a new round of trilateral talks on ending the war by Friday night.
US envoy Steve Witkoff met Vladimir Putin in St Petersburg on 21 October. Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said Russia was ‘in principle ready’ to resume trilateral talks, possibly in November and possibly in Abu Dhabi; spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin would review the documents the Americans brought. Russia released the US citizen Stephen Hubbard during the visit.
By 23:59 on 23 October, the Kremlin, the White House or the Ukrainian presidency publicly announces a specific date for a new round of trilateral US–Russia–Ukraine talks. An official statement or on-record remark by the Kremlin, the White House or the Office of the President of Ukraine, made by the deadline, naming a calendar date for the next trilateral talks. Deadline: Friday 23 October, 23:59 CEST.
Iran · United States
No Date Set for New US–Iran Talks
Date for US–Iran talks announced: 8%
Neither Washington nor Tehran named a date for a new round of negotiations by Friday night, with the US blockade of Iranian ports still in place and the Strait of Hormuz closed.
On 20 October Iran told Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, that there would be no talks until seven conditions were met. A day later Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said contacts with the United States continued through Pakistan and Qatar. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has welcomed the mediation.
By 23:59 on 23 October, the US or Iranian government publicly announces a date for a new round of US–Iran negotiations, direct or mediated. An official US or Iranian statement made by the deadline naming a calendar date for a new round of negotiations. Statements that contacts continue do not count. Deadline: Friday 23 October, 23:59 CEST.
Bank of Russia · Moscow
Bank of Russia Holds Key Rate at 14%
Key rate stays at 14%: 86%
The Bank of Russia left its key rate at 14% at Friday’s meeting, its seventh of eight this year, as it did in September.
Analysts at Sber, Finam, BCS and Expert RA had all expected a hold, citing rising inflation and inflation expectations; several left the door open to a cut in December. The bank’s next meeting is on 18 December.
The Bank of Russia keeps its key rate at 14.00% at its 23 October meeting. The Bank of Russia press release on the 23 October 2026 decision states a key rate of 14.00% per annum. Deadline: Friday 23 October, 23:59 CEST.
Venezuela · Caracas
Still No Election Date After Opposition Protest
Election date announced: 4%
Acting President Delcy Rodríguez and the electoral council did not set a date for a presidential election by Friday night, a day after the opposition led by María Corina Machado held nationwide protests demanding one.
A third round of talks between the government and the opposition has been under way in Caracas since 14 October. Rodríguez promised elections on 24 September but set no date. Polymarket gave about 9.5% for an election being scheduled by 31 December.
By 23:59 on 23 October, Venezuela’s National Electoral Council or acting president Delcy Rodríguez announces a date for a presidential election. An announcement by the CNE or by Delcy Rodríguez, made by the deadline, naming a calendar date for a presidential election. Deadline: Friday 23 October, 23:59 CEST.
Europe
France before the second day of protests
France · National Assembly
Lecornu Holds Back From 49.3 as Budget Debate Drags On
Government uses Article 49.3: 8%
The government did not invoke Article 49.3 of the Constitution on either of its budget bills by Friday night, leaving the National Assembly to continue debating the 2027 social security budget.
The Assembly began debating the social security budget on 20 October after rejecting a motion from La France insoumise to throw it out; its first-reading deadline is 27 October, after which the text can go to the Senate. The solemn vote on the revenue part of the state budget, set for 20 October, was postponed with more than 2,800 of 3,396 amendments still to be dealt with.
Lecornu used 49.3 on the 2026 budget in January and has not ruled it out this time. La France insoumise has said it will table a censure motion if he does.
By 23:59 on 23 October, the French government invokes Article 49.3 on the 2027 state budget or the 2027 social security budget in the National Assembly. The National Assembly’s record (assemblee-nationale.fr) shows the Prime Minister engaging the government’s responsibility under Article 49.3 on the PLF or PLFSS for 2027 by the deadline. Deadline: Friday 23 October, 23:59 CEST.
Economy
British shops and euro-area firms
United Kingdom · Statistics
British Retail Sales Slip in September
Sales volumes rose in September: 43%
Retail sales volumes in Great Britain fell in September from August in the Office for National Statistics’ first estimate, published at 07:00 on Friday.
Sales rose 0.5% in August, against expectations of a fall. Forecasters surveyed by Trading Economics expected a 0.2% fall in September. Industry surveys were mixed: the British Retail Consortium reported stronger like-for-like sales, BDO weaker ones.
The ONS first estimate shows Great Britain retail sales volumes, seasonally adjusted, rose month on month in September 2026. The ONS ‘Retail sales, Great Britain: September 2026’ bulletin published on 23 October gives a month-on-month change in seasonally adjusted sales volumes above 0.0%. Zero or below, or no bulletin by the deadline, resolves no. Deadline: Friday 23 October, 23:59 CEST.
Euro area · Business surveys
Eurozone Business Activity Eases From September’s High
Composite PMI at 53.0 or higher: 39%
The HCOB flash composite purchasing managers’ index for the euro area fell below 53 in October, according to S&P Global’s first estimate published on Friday morning.
In September the index rose to 53.1, against expectations of 51.5, with manufacturing at 52.7 and services at 53.0. S&P Global warned of rising input costs driven by energy prices in the Middle East. Economists expected a reading of about 52.5. The European Central Bank meets on 29 October.
The HCOB flash euro area composite PMI for October 2026 is 53.0 or higher. The S&P Global / HCOB flash euro area PMI release of 23 October 2026 gives a composite output index of 53.0 or higher. Deadline: Friday 23 October, 23:59 CEST.
Coming Up
Fixed dates for the next fortnight
Gilets jaunes ‘Act II’ across France; Bastille–Opéra march in Paris. Clocks go back overnight to Sunday.
Presidential runoff in Brazil; parliamentary election in Serbia; presidential election in Bulgaria.
Czech Statistical Office business and consumer confidence for October.
Knesset election in Israel; first-reading deadline for France’s social security budget.
Czech state holiday: President Pavel appoints generals and presents state honours at Prague Castle.
ECB monetary policy decision.
US midterm elections.
Czech National Bank monetary policy meeting and new forecast.
