Names of 28 October Honours Stay Under Wraps

Castle publishes honours list by Saturday: 4%

Prague Castle did not publish the names of the people President Petr Pavel will decorate on Wednesday, the state holiday. Under Pavel the Castle has kept the list back until the ceremony itself.

In 2025 it announced only the number in advance, 48 recipients, down from 56 in 2024, and said that it does not publish names beforehand. In 2023 it took the same line. Leaks to the press do not count as publication.

Basis: The Castle’s practice in 2023–2025 as reported by ČT24 and Echo24. Main risk: a change of practice after leaks.

Slovaks Vote for Mayors and Regions in Numbers Close to 2022

Regional turnout beats 2022’s 43.74%: 52%

Slovakia held its combined municipal and regional elections on Saturday, electing mayors, councils, regional governors and regional assemblies in a single vote, as in 2022.

The test of mobilisation was the regional turnout. In 2022, the first time the two votes were combined, it rose to 43.74 per cent from 29.95 per cent in 2017; municipal turnout was 46.19 per cent. National politics under Robert Fico’s government is sharply divided, which could lift turnout, but the boost from holding the votes together is already in the 2022 figure. The forecast is close to an even call.

Basis: TASR on the 2022 result; Slovak Radio on the 24 October date. Main risk: turnout settles within a point of 2022 either way; the evidence is mixed.

Final Datafolha Poll Fails to Put Flávio Bolsonaro Ahead

Final Datafolha has Flávio strictly ahead: 28%

Datafolha published its last survey before Sunday’s presidential runoff on Saturday evening, Brasília time, from 4,050 interviews conducted on Friday and Saturday. It did not show Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in valid votes.

The firm’s series had been moving towards Lula: 52–48 for Bolsonaro on 6–7 October, 51–49 a week later and 50–50 in the poll released on Thursday. PoderData also had the two level at 50 per cent. Because Datafolha rounds to whole numbers, a tie was itself a likely result, and a tie counts against the claim.

Saturday was the last day of street campaigning. Quaest was also due to publish a final poll, with fieldwork on the same two days.

Basis: Datafolha’s October series as reported by CNN Brasil and Tribuna de Jundiaí; registered fieldwork dates via BP Money. Main risk: a late swing to Bolsonaro of one point or more.

Conservatives Lead the Count in British Columbia

Conservatives win the most seats: 69%

British Columbians voted on Saturday in the early provincial election called by the New Democratic premier, David Eby. Polls closed at 20:00 Pacific time, 05:00 on Sunday in Central Europe, and the preliminary count favoured the BC Conservatives under their interim leader, Lorne Doerkson.

Every poll in the final week had the Conservatives ahead: Leger, 20–22 October, 44 per cent to the NDP’s 39 and the Greens’ 13; Angus Reid, 15–19 October, 46 to 43, closer than at the start of the month. The 338Canada model gave the Conservatives a 74 per cent chance of winning the most seats.

The New Democrats’ hope lay in the efficiency of their vote in Metro Vancouver and on Vancouver Island. In 2024 they won 47 of 93 seats to the Conservatives’ 44 on a near-even popular vote.

Basis: Leger, Angus Reid and Innovative Research polls; the 338Canada projection. Main risk: the NDP’s seat efficiency turns a small popular-vote deficit into a plurality, as nearly happened in 2024.

Trump Rallies in Georgia After Venue Moves to Perry

Trump speaks at the Perry rally: 91%

President Donald Trump addressed a midterm rally at the Guardian Centers training site in Perry, Georgia, on Saturday evening, ten days before the 3 November elections. The event, announced for Macon, was moved about 25 miles south on 21 October; no reason was given.

It was the sixth stop in a week of rallies that ran from Kansas through the Carolinas, Iowa and Florida, with Michigan to follow on Sunday. Rick Jackson, the Republican nominee for governor of Georgia, said he would skip it.

Basis: WCTV, 13WMAZ and WGXA on the move to Perry; Georgia Recorder on Jackson. Main risk: a late cancellation for weather, security or an official crisis.

Still No Date for Three-Way Talks

Date for trilateral talks named: 6%

Three days after Steve Witkoff’s meeting with Vladimir Putin in St Petersburg, neither Moscow, Washington nor Kyiv had named a date for the next round of trilateral talks.

Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said Putin had agreed in principle to resume them, in mid-November, after the US midterms; spokesman Dmitry Peskov mentioned Abu Dhabi as a possible venue. Volodymyr Zelensky said talks should come no later than early November. Russia released the US citizen Stephen Hubbard during Witkoff’s visit.

Basis: Meduza and Axios on the Witkoff–Putin meeting and the November timetable. Main risk: an off-hand remark by Trump or Ushakov naming a day.

Tehran Keeps Mediators Waiting

Iran says its answer was delivered: 9%

Iran did not say on record by Saturday night that it had delivered its answer to the Qatari–Pakistani proposal for resuming talks with the United States, which Pakistan’s army chief carried to Tehran on 20 October.

Anonymous reports in the Arab press spoke of preliminary approval on both sides for a plan reported to release about $6 billion in exchange for nuclear inspections; no government confirmed it. Reuters, citing Iranian officials, reported that Tehran was in no hurry before the US midterms. The foreign ministry’s weekly briefing falls on Monday.

Basis: Reuters via Investing.com on Iran’s timing; Archyde on the delivery of the proposal; Arab News on Iran’s earlier ‘once the review is over’ line. Main risk: a spokesman’s remark that the reply was ‘conveyed’.

Serbia Falls Silent Before a Vote That Vučić’s List Is Favoured to Top

Vučić’s SNS list comes first: 67%

Campaigning stopped in Serbia on Saturday ahead of Sunday’s snap parliamentary election, the first in which the protest movement has gathered behind a single Student List. Aleksandar Vučić resigned as president on 27 September to lead the list of his Serbian Progressive Party for prime minister.

The polls disagree more than usual. Faktor Plus, close to the government, had Vučić’s list at 48.6 per cent to the students’ 37.1; NSPM had the students ahead, 44.4 to 41.7, CRTA 44.9 to 35.7 and Birodi 48.5 to 38.6. The PolitPro average gave Vučić a lead of about 2.6 points. The students held their final rally in Belgrade on Thursday.

The SNS has topped every parliamentary vote since 2012. The forecast below is for Sunday’s result, which the Republic Electoral Commission usually publishes within a day.

Basis: Polls compiled by ANSA; Al Jazeera on the final student rally; EPC on Vučić’s resignation. Main risk: high turnout carries the Student List past the SNS; the evidence is mixed because the pollsters split along political lines.

Bulgaria Heads for a Runoff Even With Iotova Far Ahead

No outright winner in round one: 91%

Bulgaria observed its day of election silence on Saturday before Sunday’s first round of the presidential election, with 27 tickets on the ballot. Iliana Iotova, backed by Progressive Bulgaria and the BSP, was the clear favourite; Andrey Gyurov, backed by PP–DB, ran second in the polls.

To win outright a candidate needs more than half the valid votes and a turnout of at least 50 per cent. No candidate has managed it since direct elections began in 1992. Turnout in the first round was 56.28 per cent in 2016, when voting was compulsory and a referendum was held alongside, and 40.47 per cent in 2021. A runoff would be held on 1 November.

Basis: The election rules and past turnout as summarised on Wikipedia; Eurointegration on October polling. Main risk: high turnout combined with Iotova above 50 per cent of valid votes.

Rome’s Best Film Prize Goes to a Film Directed by a Man

Best Film goes to a woman director: 37%

The jury of the Rome Film Festival’s Progressive Cinema competition, chaired by the Polish director Jan Komasa, announced its awards ahead of Sunday’s closing day. Six of the 18 films in competition were directed by women: Dua (Blerta Basholli), Eurotrash (Frauke Finsterwalder), Giorni felici (Susanna Nicchiarelli), I See Buildings Fall Like Lightning (Clio Barnard), Mustang (Kasia Smutniak) and Skateboarding Is Not for Girls (Dina Duma).

Last year’s Best Film, A Left-Handed Girl, was directed by Shih-Ching Tsou. The jury of five includes two women, Alice Braga and Saja Kilani. The forecast leans slightly towards a film by one of the twelve men in competition, in line with their share of the field.

Basis: Festival line-up and juries as reported by Cinefilos and the festival site. Main risk: none beyond the jury’s choice; the awards date (Saturday or Sunday) is inside the deadline.