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Sunday, 25 October 2026No. 3 · Print editionReporting the events of Saturday 24 October
Every report in this edition is a forecast. Each describes an event scheduled or expected for Saturday 24 October and states the outcome we consider most likely, with its probability. The basis line under each report names what it rests on.
France · Gilets jaunes
Act II Draws a Smaller Crowd Than the First Saturday
A week after a day of clashes and 1,200 arrests, the gilets jaunes marched again across France. Without the unions behind them, the Interior Ministry counted fewer people than on 17 October.
Ministry counts fewer than on 17 October: 82%
The second nationwide day of gilets jaunes protests in a week brought marchers out in Paris, Lyon and dozens of other towns on Saturday, but on a smaller scale than the first. The comparison that counted was the Interior Ministry’s own nationwide figure, which for 17 October had been about 550,000; organisers had claimed about 800,000.
The Coordination des Gilets jaunes called the ‘Acte II’ on 19 October and mapped several dozen actions. The CGT, CFDT and FO did not formally call on their members to join; the unions are concentrating on an interprofessional strike on 5 November, and the movement has already announced an ‘Act III’ for 31 October.
The 17 October protests ended with clashes and about 1,200 arrests. President Emmanuel Macron refused the resignation offered by Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez. In Paris the route was disputed until the last days: the prefecture had barred the Bastille the previous Saturday.
In 2018, the first gilets jaunes movement fell from 282,000 people on its first Saturday to 166,000 on its second, by the ministry’s count. Second days without union backing usually shrink; the risk to that pattern was anger over the policing of 17 October.
Correction (23 October): The report said the unions did not back the 24 October protests. That was wrong: the CGT called on its members to join peacefully, and the gilets jaunes coordination agreed to join the CGT’s Bastille–Nation march, which the Paris police authorised; the Bastille–Opéra route was banned. The Rhône prefecture banned all demonstrations in Lyon on Saturday. On 17 October the ordered route ran from République to Place de Clichy; the Bastille was barred only by orders of 19–20 October. The ministry’s 17 October figure was reported by Belga, not AFP. The forecast was made on the mistaken premise of no union backing; under our rules its probability stays as published. Sources
How this claim is checked
The Interior Ministry’s nationwide turnout figure for the 24 October protests is lower than its nationwide figure for 17 October. The French Interior Ministry’s nationwide count for 24 October 2026, as published by the ministry or reported by AFP or Le Monde by 12:00 CET on 25 October, is lower than its nationwide count for 17 October 2026 (about 550,000). Organisers’ figures do not count; no ministry figure by the deadline resolves no. Deadline: Sunday 25 October, 12:00 CET.
Serbia · Election silence
Serbia Falls Silent Before a Vote That Vučić’s List Is Favoured to Top
Vučić’s SNS list comes first: 67%
Campaigning stopped in Serbia on Saturday ahead of Sunday’s snap parliamentary election, the first in which the protest movement has gathered behind a single Student List. Aleksandar Vučić resigned as president on 27 September to lead the list of his Serbian Progressive Party for prime minister.
The polls disagree more than usual. Faktor Plus, close to the government, had Vučić’s list at 48.6 per cent to the students’ 37.1; NSPM had the students ahead, 44.4 to 41.7, CRTA 44.9 to 35.7 and Birodi 48.5 to 38.6. The PolitPro average gave Vučić a lead of about 2.6 points. The students held their final rally in Belgrade on Thursday.
The SNS has topped every parliamentary vote since 2012. The forecast below is for Sunday’s result, which the Republic Electoral Commission usually publishes within a day.
Correction (23 October): Serbia’s election silence began at midnight on Friday 23 October, 48 hours before polling day, not on Saturday. The headline’s ‘favoured’ rests on the PolitPro poll average and the SNS’s record; three of the four individual polls cited had the Student List ahead. Sources
How this claim is checked
In Serbia’s 25 October parliamentary election, the SNS-led list wins more votes than any other list. Preliminary or final results published by the Republic Electoral Commission (rik.parlament.gov.rs) by 23:59 CET on 26 October 2026 show the list led by the Serbian Progressive Party with more votes than any other list. Deadline: Monday 26 October, 23:59 CET.
World
Brazil’s last poll, British Columbia votes, Trump in Georgia, Ukraine, Iran
Brazil · Runoff eve
Final Datafolha Poll Fails to Put Flávio Bolsonaro Ahead
Final Datafolha has Flávio strictly ahead: 28%
Datafolha published its last survey before Sunday’s presidential runoff on Saturday evening, Brasília time, from 4,050 interviews conducted on Friday and Saturday. It did not show Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in valid votes.
The firm’s series had been moving towards Lula: 52–48 for Bolsonaro on 6–7 October, 51–49 a week later and 50–50 in the poll released on Thursday. PoderData also had the two level at 50 per cent. Because Datafolha rounds to whole numbers, a tie was itself a likely result, and a tie counts against the claim.
Saturday was the last day of street campaigning. Quaest was also due to publish a final poll, with fieldwork on the same two days.
Datafolha’s final runoff poll, with fieldwork on 23–24 October, shows Flávio Bolsonaro strictly ahead of Lula in valid votes. The Datafolha poll with fieldwork on 23–24 October 2026, published by 06:00 CET on 25 October, gives Flávio Bolsonaro a higher share of valid votes than Lula. A tie, or no such poll by the deadline, resolves no. Deadline: Sunday 25 October, 06:00 CET.
Canada · British Columbia
Conservatives Lead the Count in British Columbia
Conservatives win the most seats: 69%
British Columbians voted on Saturday in the early provincial election called by the New Democratic premier, David Eby. Polls closed at 20:00 Pacific time, 05:00 on Sunday in Central Europe, and the preliminary count favoured the BC Conservatives under their interim leader, Lorne Doerkson.
Every poll in the final week had the Conservatives ahead: Leger, 20–22 October, 44 per cent to the NDP’s 39 and the Greens’ 13; Angus Reid, 15–19 October, 46 to 43, closer than at the start of the month. The 338Canada model gave the Conservatives a 74 per cent chance of winning the most seats.
The New Democrats’ hope lay in the efficiency of their vote in Metro Vancouver and on Vancouver Island. In 2024 they won 47 of 93 seats to the Conservatives’ 44 on a near-even popular vote.
Correction (23 October): Polls in British Columbia closed at 20:00 Pacific time, which is 04:00 on Sunday in Central Europe, not 05:00: European clocks go back one hour earlier that night.
How this claim is checked
The BC Conservatives win more seats than any other party in British Columbia’s 24 October provincial election. Elections BC preliminary results (elections.bc.ca) as of 23:59 CET on 25 October 2026 show the BC Conservatives elected or leading in more of the 93 electoral districts than any other party. A tie resolves no. Deadline: Sunday 25 October, 23:59 CET.
United States · Midterms
Trump Rallies in Georgia After Venue Moves to Perry
Trump speaks at the Perry rally: 91%
President Donald Trump addressed a midterm rally at the Guardian Centers training site in Perry, Georgia, on Saturday evening, ten days before the 3 November elections. The event, announced for Macon, was moved about 25 miles south on 21 October; no reason was given.
It was the sixth stop in a week of rallies that ran from Kansas through the Carolinas, Iowa and Florida, with Michigan to follow on Sunday. Rick Jackson, the Republican nominee for governor of Georgia, said he would skip it.
Correction (23 October): The move of the rally from Macon to Perry was announced on the evening of 20 October, US time, not on 21 October. Sources
How this claim is checked
Donald Trump speaks in person at the campaign rally in Perry, Georgia, on 24 October. AP, Reuters or White House pool reports show that Trump addressed the rally in Perry, Georgia, on 24 October 2026 (local time). Deadline: Sunday 25 October, 12:00 CET.
Russia · Ukraine · United States
Still No Date for Three-Way Talks
Date for trilateral talks named: 6%
Three days after Steve Witkoff’s meeting with Vladimir Putin in St Petersburg, neither Moscow, Washington nor Kyiv had named a date for the next round of trilateral talks.
Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said Putin had agreed in principle to resume them, in mid-November, after the US midterms; spokesman Dmitry Peskov mentioned Abu Dhabi as a possible venue. Volodymyr Zelensky said talks should come no later than early November. Russia released the US citizen Stephen Hubbard during Witkoff’s visit.
Correction (23 October): The report omitted that, according to Axios, Yuri Ushakov said on 21 October that talks could take place ‘around the 10th of November’. The claim requires a calendar date; whether that remark counts will be decided by the resolver and noted with the result. Sources
How this claim is checked
By 23:59 on 24 October, the Kremlin, the White House or the Ukrainian presidency publicly names a calendar date for a new round of trilateral US–Russia–Ukraine talks. An official statement or on-record remark by the Kremlin, the White House or the Office of the President of Ukraine, made by the deadline, naming a calendar date for the next trilateral talks. ‘Mid-November’ or ‘after the elections’ does not count. Deadline: Saturday 24 October, 23:59 CEST.
Iran · United States
Tehran Keeps Mediators Waiting
Iran says its answer was delivered: 9%
Iran did not say on record by Saturday night that it had delivered its answer to the Qatari–Pakistani proposal for resuming talks with the United States, which Pakistan’s army chief carried to Tehran on 20 October.
Anonymous reports in the Arab press spoke of preliminary approval on both sides for a plan reported to release about $6 billion in exchange for nuclear inspections; no government confirmed it. Reuters, citing Iranian officials, reported that Tehran was in no hurry before the US midterms. The foreign ministry’s weekly briefing falls on Monday.
Correction (23 October): The report of ‘preliminary approval’ on both sides came from Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, as relayed by Mehr News; it was not cited. The plan was described as about $6 billion from interest on Iranian assets held in Qatari banks in exchange for unannounced IAEA inspections, not as a release of the assets. The Reuters report cited described Tehran as deliberately dragging out talks with the United States, and the Arab News link concerned an earlier proposal on the Strait of Hormuz. Sources
How this claim is checked
By 23:59 on 24 October, the Iranian government states on record that it has delivered its response to the Qatar–Pakistan proposal. The Iranian foreign ministry, its spokesman, the President or the Supreme National Security Council states on record, by the deadline, that Iran’s response to the Qatar–Pakistan proposal has been delivered to the mediators. Anonymous reports do not count. Deadline: Saturday 24 October, 23:59 CEST.
Europe
Serbia and Bulgaria on the eve of Sunday’s votes
Bulgaria · Presidential election
Bulgaria Heads for a Runoff Even With Iotova Far Ahead
No outright winner in round one: 91%
Bulgaria observed its day of election silence on Saturday before Sunday’s first round of the presidential election, with 27 tickets on the ballot. Iliana Iotova, backed by Progressive Bulgaria and the BSP, was the clear favourite; Andrey Gyurov, backed by PP–DB, ran second in the polls.
To win outright a candidate needs more than half the valid votes and a turnout of at least 50 per cent. No candidate has managed it since direct elections began in 1992. Turnout in the first round was 56.28 per cent in 2016, when voting was compulsory and a referendum was held alongside, and 40.47 per cent in 2021. A runoff would be held on 1 November.
No candidate is elected in the first round of Bulgaria’s 25 October presidential election. Results published by the Central Election Commission (cik.bg) by 23:59 CET on 27 October 2026 show that no candidate was elected in the first round, so that a second round is required. Deadline: Tuesday 27 October, 23:59 CET.
Culture
Rome’s film prizes
Culture · Rome Film Festival
Rome’s Best Film Prize Goes to a Film Directed by a Man
Best Film goes to a woman director: 37%
The jury of the Rome Film Festival’s Progressive Cinema competition, chaired by the Polish director Jan Komasa, announced its awards ahead of Sunday’s closing day. Six of the 18 films in competition were directed by women: Dua (Blerta Basholli), Eurotrash (Frauke Finsterwalder), Giorni felici (Susanna Nicchiarelli), I See Buildings Fall Like Lightning (Clio Barnard), Mustang (Kasia Smutniak) and Skateboarding Is Not for Girls (Dina Duma).
Last year’s Best Film, A Left-Handed Girl, was directed by Shih-Ching Tsou. The jury of five includes two women, Alice Braga and Saja Kilani. The forecast leans slightly towards a film by one of the twelve men in competition, in line with their share of the field.
The Best Film award of the 2026 Rome Film Festival’s Progressive Cinema competition goes to a film directed or co-directed by a woman. The festival’s announcement of the 2026 Progressive Cinema awards on romacinemafest.it (or romacinemafest.org), made by 23:59 CET on 25 October, names as Best Film a film directed or co-directed by a woman. A shared award counts if any winning film qualifies. Deadline: Sunday 25 October, 23:59 CET.
On the forecast board
Our standing questions, latest figures · All questions
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Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil's presidential runoff on 25 October 2026?
