Forecast board

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil's presidential runoff on 25 October 2026? Yes if the Superior Electoral Court (TSE, resultados.tse.jus.br) count, or its official proclamation, shows Lula with more valid votes than Flávio Bolsonaro by 27 Oct 2026 23:59 CET. Otherwise no. Deadline: Tuesday 27 October, 23:59 CET.

Flávio Bolsonaro led the first round with 47.0% to Lula's 45.2%, most of the remaining votes went to right-leaning candidates, and final polls are tied or slightly favour him (Datafolha 50–50, Quaest 45–44, AtlasIntel 51.1–48.9), while betting markets are far more bearish on Lula. Lula's late momentum, with Datafolha moving from 52–48 for Flávio in early October to a tie, is what could still carry him to victory.

History: 23/10 32%. Sources: Reuters (via Internazionale): Bolsonaro's lead over Lula narrows, Quaest poll (21 Oct 2026); CNN Brasil: Datafolha – Flávio and Lula tied at 50% of valid votes; Al Jazeera: Latest poll shows Bolsonaro keeping an edge (16 Oct 2026).

Will the Federal Reserve raise the federal funds target range at its meeting ending 28 October 2026? Yes if the FOMC statement published on federalreserve.gov on 28 Oct 2026 raises the target range for the federal funds rate. Otherwise no. Deadline: Thursday 29 October, 06:00 CET.

Markets have moved firmly towards a hold since a hot September CPI briefly lifted hike bets, Warsh said on 16 October that the data had not changed his view, and the September projections point to December as the natural next step. Only a hawkish surprise from Warsh, who has kept October formally open and gave no signal before the blackout period, would change the outcome, and the Fed rarely surprises markets this way.

History: 23/10 6%. Sources: Tiger Brokers news: Markets expect a hold in October, Warsh could surprise (17 Oct 2026); investingLive: Warsh names October and December as decision points.

Will President Herzog task Benjamin Netanyahu with forming Israel's next government by 30 November 2026? Yes if the Israeli President's Office (president.gov.il) announces, by 30 Nov 2026 23:59 CET, that Netanyahu has been given the mandate to form a government after the 27 Oct 2026 Knesset election. No if another person receives the first mandate or no mandate is given by then. Deadline: Monday 30 November, 23:59 CET.

In the Jerusalem Post average of four mainstream polls Netanyahu's bloc has about 50 seats against about 53 for the Zionist opposition, with Eisenkot's Yashar ahead of Likud, so Eisenkot is likely to collect more recommendations if the opposition, and possibly Arab parties, line up behind him. Netanyahu could still get the mandate, as he did after 7 of the 9 elections he has contested as Likud leader since 2006, if polls underestimate the right or the opposition splits its recommendations between Eisenkot and Bennett.

History: 23/10 39%. Sources: Jerusalem Post: poll – opposition 60, coalition 49 (21 Aug 2026); Al Jazeera: Bennett and Lapid unite to challenge Netanyahu.

Will Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet in person by 30 November 2026? Yes if, by 30 Nov 2026 23:59 CET, the White House or China's foreign ministry/Xinhua confirms an in-person meeting between Trump and Xi (bilateral or in a wider format, e.g. on the sidelines of APEC in Shenzhen). Phone or video calls do not count. Deadline: Monday 30 November, 23:59 CET.

Trump accepted Xi's invitation to the APEC summit in Shenzhen on 18–19 November, writing on 25 September that "we will meet again in China in November". The main risk is a last-minute cancellation over post-midterm politics, an escalation of the Iran war or a trade or Taiwan flare-up; Trump skipped APEC in 2018.

History: 23/10 86%. Sources: Financial News (Korea): APEC Shenzhen and a possible trilateral summit (10 Sep 2026); AP (via AJC): Putin and Witkoff discussed leaders' meeting in China; Reuters (via Internazionale): CCP plenum set for 26–29 October.

Will a BC Conservative be sworn in as Premier of British Columbia by 30 November 2026? Yes if, by 30 Nov 2026 23:59 CET, a member of the Conservative Party of British Columbia is sworn in as premier, as announced by the BC government (news.gov.bc.ca) or the Lieutenant Governor. Otherwise no. Deadline: Monday 30 November, 23:59 CET.

The BC Conservatives led the final Leger poll by about five points, although Angus Reid calls the race a statistical tie, and 338Canada projects them winning a majority of around 54 seats; a clear result would let a new premier be sworn in by mid-November, as past Canadian changes of government took about three weeks. A narrow or minority result, with mail-in ballots and recounts dragging out the count or Eby staying on to test the House with Green support, could push a swearing-in past 30 November.

History: 23/10 72%. Sources: Global News: No sign of late NDP surge, Conservatives lead by five; Leger: BC election poll (22 Oct 2026); 338Canada: British Columbia.

Will US, Russian and Ukrainian official delegations meet for a new round of trilateral peace talks by 15 December 2026? Yes if, by 15 Dec 2026 23:59 CET, the Kremlin (kremlin.ru), the Ukrainian presidency (president.gov.ua) or the White House/State Department confirms that a meeting with official delegations of all three countries has taken place (any level, any venue). Bilateral meetings do not count. Deadline: Tuesday 15 December, 23:59 CET.

After Steve Witkoff met Vladimir Putin on 21 October, Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov said Russia agreed in principle to resume three-way talks after 10 November, with Abu Dhabi under consideration, which leaves about five weeks of slack before 15 December, and the same format already met three times earlier in 2026. The main risk is that Moscow stalls or cancels, as Zelensky warned it has done before, or that the contacts are downgraded to bilateral meetings, which do not count.

History: 23/10 66%. Sources: AP (via AJC): Witkoff meets Putin in St Petersburg (21 Oct 2026); Meduza: US, Russia and Ukraine discuss resuming trilateral talks in November; Axios: Witkoff meets Putin.

Will the Democrats win a majority in the US House of Representatives in the 3 November 2026 midterm elections? Yes if, by 31 Dec 2026 23:59 CET, AP race calls (or certified state results) show Democrats winning at least 218 of the 435 House seats. Otherwise no. Deadline: Thursday 31 December, 23:59 CET.

Democrats need a net gain of only a few seats on the 220–215 result of 2024, the president's party has lost House seats in 18 of 20 midterms since 1946, and betting markets strongly favour Democratic control. A correlated polling miss in Republicans' favour or mid-decade redistricting such as Texas's could still keep them below 218 seats.

History: 23/10 91%. Sources: Kalshi News: Democrats' Senate control odds jump to 63% (30 Sep 2026); Khaleej Times: US midterm elections 2026 explainer.

Will the Federal Reserve raise the federal funds target range at its December 2026 meeting? Yes if the FOMC statement at the scheduled December 2026 meeting (federalreserve.gov) raises the target range for the federal funds rate. A hike only in October does not count. Resolves by 31 Dec 2026 23:59 CET. Deadline: Thursday 31 December, 23:59 CET.

The Fed raised rates unanimously to 3.75–4.00% in September, the median September projection points to another hike in December, Warsh says inflation will not return to target on its own, and markets see a December move as likely. Easing energy prices after any de-escalation with Iran, weak payrolls, political pressure on Warsh or a surprise October hike that pre-empts December could still lead to a hold.

History: 23/10 69%. Sources: Tiger Brokers news: Warsh could deliver a surprise (17 Oct 2026); investingLive: Warsh names October and December as decision points.

Will US and Iranian officials hold a publicly confirmed round of negotiations (direct or indirect, in the same venue) by 31 December 2026? Yes if, by 31 Dec 2026 23:59 CET, both the Iranian foreign ministry (mfa.ir or its spokesman) and the US government (White House or State Department) confirm that delegations of the two countries met, directly or through mediators in the same venue, to negotiate. Exchanges of written messages through intermediaries do not count. Deadline: Thursday 31 December, 23:59 CET.

Iran told Pakistan on 20 October there would be no talks until its seven conditions are met, Washington insists on the nuclear file and enrichment cuts first, and the question requires both governments to confirm a same-venue negotiating round, not just messages passed through Qatar or Pakistan. Reuters reports Tehran is dragging out the stalemate until the 3 November US midterms, so mediators who have convened rounds quickly before could open a window in November and December.

History: 23/10 31%. Sources: bdnews24: US–Iran talks stalled over Hormuz conditions; TimesLIVE: Iran tells Pakistan no talks with US until demands met (20 Oct 2026); Reuters (via Investing.com): Iran prolongs talks stalemate before midterms.

Will the Democrats win control of the US Senate in the 2026 midterm elections? Yes if, based on AP race calls and certified results available by 31 Jan 2027 23:59 CET, Democrats and independents caucusing with them hold at least 51 seats in the Senate convening in January 2027 (50 is not enough, as the Vice President is a Republican). Otherwise no. Deadline: Sunday 31 January, 23:59 CET.

Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reach the required 51, early-September polling averages showed them ahead in North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, Texas and Alaska and narrowly holding Michigan and New Hampshire, and markets have moved their way since mid-September. Because the path depends on winning several close races at once, a single polling error of two or three points towards Republicans could flip several and leave them short, and a 50–50 Senate would not be enough.

History: 23/10 64%. Sources: Kalshi News: Democrats' Senate control odds jump to 63% (30 Sep 2026); Mediaite: Cook shifts four Senate races toward Democrats.

Will a new Israeli government win a Knesset confidence vote and be sworn in by 31 January 2027? Yes if the Knesset (main.knesset.gov.il) approves a new government formed after the 27 Oct 2026 election in a confidence vote by 31 Jan 2027 23:59 CET. Otherwise no. Deadline: Sunday 31 January, 23:59 CET.

Polls give neither bloc 61 seats without the Arab parties, a deadlock resembling the two 2019 elections that never produced a government, and the first mandate with its extension runs to about late December, leaving little time for a second attempt before 31 January. A government could still be sworn in on time if the right outperforms the mainstream polls or the opposition builds a coalition relying on Ra'am, as in 2021.

History: 23/10 46%. Sources: Jerusalem Post: poll – opposition 60, coalition 49 (21 Aug 2026); Al Jazeera: Bennett and Lapid unite to challenge Netanyahu.

Will Russia and Ukraine both announce a general ceasefire that takes effect by 31 January 2027? Yes if, by 31 Jan 2027 23:59 CET, both the Kremlin and the Ukrainian presidency officially announce a general ceasefire (covering land, air and sea along the whole front, not limited to energy infrastructure, holidays or a period shorter than 30 days) that has entered into force. Otherwise no. Deadline: Sunday 31 January, 23:59 CET.

No general ceasefire has been agreed in four and a half years of negotiations, strikes continued around Witkoff's 21 October visit to St Petersburg, and Ushakov frames the next talks around a post-war security system rather than an interim truce. Only a breakthrough at the talks expected after 10 November, producing a ceasefire of at least 30 days along the whole front that both sides announce and that is in force by 31 January, would change this.

History: 23/10 7%. Sources: AP (via AJC): Witkoff meets Putin in St Petersburg (21 Oct 2026); Meduza: trilateral talks could resume in November.

Will Venezuela's electoral authority officially set a date for a presidential election by 31 January 2027? Yes if, by 31 Jan 2027 23:59 CET, Venezuela's National Electoral Council (CNE, cne.gob.ve) or the government in a formal decree publishes a specific calendar date for a presidential election. Statements that elections will take place without a date do not count. Deadline: Sunday 31 January, 23:59 CET.

Acting President Delcy Rodríguez promised elections at the UN in September without giving a date, Reuters reports the vote could slip to late 2027 pending institutional reforms and a new electoral council (CNE), and Trump has said Venezuela is "not ready yet". Government–opposition talks that opened in Caracas on 14 October, where the opposition said it would "look for a date", and protests over the missing date are the main routes to an earlier announcement.

History: 23/10 11%. Sources: Euronews (ES): Delcy Rodríguez announces elections but sets no date; NTN24: Elections could be delayed to late 2027, Reuters says; Rio Times: Venezuela election-date protest (22 Oct 2026).

Will Iliana Iotova be elected President of Bulgaria in the October–November 2026 election? Yes if the Central Election Commission (cik.bg) results of the first round (25 Oct) or the runoff (1 Nov 2026), published by 3 Nov 2026 23:59 CET, declare Iotova elected. Otherwise no. Deadline: Tuesday 3 November, 23:59 CET.

Iliana Iotova, backed by Rumen Radev's dominant Progressive Bulgaria, polled 43.4% against 28.9% for Andrey Gyurov, and no first-round leader has lost a Bulgarian presidential runoff since 1992. The main risks are anti-Radev voters consolidating behind Gyurov in the likely 1 November runoff and the Central Election Commission declaring the result after the 3 November deadline.

History: 23/10 85%. Sources: Novinite: President Iotova seeks a mandate of her own; BNR: Presidential elections will be held on 25 October; European Pravda: Bulgaria before the vote (14 Oct 2026).

Will the SNS-led list win an outright majority (at least 126 of 250 seats) in Serbia's 25 October 2026 parliamentary election? Yes if the Republic Electoral Commission (RIK, rik.parlament.gov.rs) final or latest published results by 15 Nov 2026 23:59 CET allocate at least 126 of 250 seats to the list led by the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS). Seats of allied separate lists (e.g. SPS) do not count unless they ran on the SNS-led list. Deadline: Sunday 15 November, 23:59 CET.

With SPS running separately, the SNS-led list needs roughly 47% of the vote to win 126 seats on its own, a level only the government-friendly Faktor Plus (48.6%) shows, while NSPM, CRTA and Birodi put it at 35.7–41.7% and behind the Student List. A low wasted vote, a fragmented opposition and SNS's incumbency and state-resource advantages, which have helped it beat independent polls before, are its route to a majority.

History: 23/10 30%. Sources: Al Jazeera: Serbia's snap election – can Vučić outmanoeuvre the student revolt? (28 Sep 2026); ANSA: Latest polls in Serbia indicate an uncertain outcome (22 Oct 2026); Al Jazeera: Final student-led rally before the election (22 Oct 2026).

Will the European Central Bank raise its deposit facility rate at its meeting on 17 December 2026? Yes if the ECB monetary policy decision published on ecb.europa.eu on 17 Dec 2026 raises the deposit facility rate above its level after the 29 Oct 2026 meeting. Otherwise no. (If the ECB hikes on 29 October and holds in December, no.) Deadline: Thursday 17 December, 23:59 CET.

With euro-area inflation at 3.8%, 64 of 73 economists in the Reuters poll expect a 25-basis-point hike on 17 December, when new projections are due, and Danske sees it as the final hike to a 2.75% peak. The main risks are the recently less hawkish tone of Governing Council members, weakening growth, or a surprise October hike followed by a December hold, which would resolve the question negatively.

History: 23/10 78%. Sources: Global Banking & Finance Review: ECB to hike in December as inflation almost doubles target; ECB: Governing Council meeting calendar.

Will the French government invoke Article 49.3 of the constitution on the 2027 state budget bill by 31 December 2026? Yes if, by 31 Dec 2026 23:59 CET, the Prime Minister engages the government's responsibility under Article 49(3) on the projet de loi de finances pour 2027 (any part or reading), as recorded by the Assemblée nationale (assemblee-nationale.fr). Use of 49.3 only on the social security budget (PLFSS) does not count. Deadline: Thursday 31 December, 23:59 CET.

Ministers call adoption by vote "très difficile" and have not ruled out Article 49.3, the Assembly's 40-day first-reading limit (around 10 November) and the 70-day point after which ordinances become possible (around 10 December) both fall within the window, and Lecornu used 49.3 for the 2026 budget. But in the last cycle he waited, bridged the year-end with a special law and invoked 49.3 only in January 2026, and a repeat of that sequence or the use of ordinances would resolve the question negatively.

History: 23/10 49%. Sources: LCP: 2027 budget – the government on a knife-edge (12 Oct 2026); La Libre: Lecornu to use 49.3 to pass the 2026 budget (19 Jan 2026); LCP: Budget 2027 dossier.

Will the French National Assembly adopt a motion of censure against Sébastien Lecornu's government by 31 December 2026? Yes if the Assemblée nationale adopts a motion de censure (by an absolute majority of the members of the Assembly, as required by Article 49 of the Constitution) against the Lecornu government by 31 Dec 2026 23:59 CET, as recorded on assemblee-nationale.fr. No if no motion is adopted, or if the government leaves office in another way. Deadline: Thursday 31 December, 23:59 CET.

A censure motion has passed only twice in the Fifth Republic, in 1962 and against Barnier in 2024, every motion against Lecornu has failed (with 271 and 256 votes against the 289 needed), and success would require the Socialists and the RN to vote together, which both have pre-election reasons to avoid. A 49.3 on a budget that keeps pension de-indexation, the RN's red line, without the changes the Socialists demand is the most likely trigger that could change this.

History: 23/10 15%. Sources: LCP: 2027 budget – the government on a knife-edge (12 Oct 2026); Blick: Assembly rejects a third censure motion (2026); Le Petit Journal: Political crisis and violence in France – latest.

Will the EU Council adopt a 22nd package of sanctions against Russia by 31 December 2026? Yes if a Council of the EU press release (consilium.europa.eu) or the Official Journal records the formal adoption of the 22nd package of restrictive measures against Russia by 31 Dec 2026 23:59 CET. Agreement by ambassadors (Coreper) alone does not count. Deadline: Thursday 31 December, 23:59 CET.

Three months after the 21st package the Commission had still not presented the 22nd by 19 October and gave no date, so a proposal in November would leave only weeks for unanimous agreement, while recent packages have taken from five weeks to more than two and a half months, with Hungary, Slovakia and Greece holding up earlier ones. A pre-Christmas push like the December adoptions of 2023 and 2024 could still deliver it by year-end, though oil measures during an energy-price crisis invite fresh vetoes.

History: 23/10 47%. Sources: Mayer Brown: EU adopts 21st package against Russia (24 Jul 2026); Charter97: Commission working on next sanctions package (19 Oct 2026); UA.News: EU may adopt 22nd package in November.

Will EU leaders reach political agreement on the 2028–2034 Multiannual Financial Framework by 31 December 2026? Yes if European Council conclusions or a statement by its President published on consilium.europa.eu by 31 Dec 2026 23:59 CET record agreement among all 27 heads of state or government on the overall size and structure of the 2028–2034 MFF. Partial agreements or progress reports do not count. Deadline: Thursday 31 December, 23:59 CET.

The October summit ended inconclusively, the Irish presidency's €141 billion cut was largely rejected and leaders softened the year-end target, while previous MFF deals took 20–26 months from the Commission's proposal against about 17 months for a December 2026 deal. Only a breakthrough on António Costa's new negotiating box at the 26 November special summit or the December European Council could produce an agreement this year.

History: 23/10 13%. Sources: Euronews: Inconclusive sparring at EU summit puts budget timeline into question (15 Oct 2026); Eunews: Costa steps up work on the multiannual budget (21 Oct 2026).

Will Aleksandar Vučić be elected Prime Minister of Serbia by 31 January 2027? Yes if, by 31 Jan 2027 23:59 CET, the National Assembly of Serbia (parlament.gov.rs) elects a government headed by Aleksandar Vučić. Otherwise no. Deadline: Sunday 31 January, 23:59 CET.

Vučić needs a parliamentary majority behind a government he leads, whether SNS alone or with partners, which split polls leave in doubt, and he must be elected by 31 January, about 98 days after the vote, whereas only one of five Serbian governments since 2014 was formed that fast. His strong incentive to move quickly, having resigned the presidency and holding no office, and the 2014 precedent of a 42-day formation under him could get it done, while protests, recounts and a parallel presidential election could delay it.

The market asks who will be the next prime minister with no deadline; our question needs Vučić elected by 31 January, and forming a government can take up to 90 days after the parliament is constituted.

History: 23/10 38%. Sources: Al Jazeera: Serbia's snap election – can Vučić outmanoeuvre the student revolt? (28 Sep 2026); ANSA: Latest polls in Serbia indicate an uncertain outcome (22 Oct 2026).

Will the Czech National Bank raise its two-week repo rate at its monetary policy meeting on 5 November 2026? Yes if the ČNB Bank Board decision published on cnb.cz on 5 Nov 2026 raises the two-week repo rate above 3.75%. No if it is held or cut, or if no decision is published by 5 Nov 2026 23:59 CET. Deadline: Thursday 5 November, 23:59 CET.

September inflation of 2.5% and core inflation of 3.1% both beat the ČNB's forecasts, and most analysts, including ING, Komerční banka and Erste, expect a 25-basis-point hike on 5 November, when a new forecast is also due. Against that, the September hold was unanimous, board member Frait says a hike is "not a done deal" and that waiting carries little risk, and the October fuel price cap will depress the next inflation figure.

History: 23/10 62%. Sources: BusinessInfo.cz: ČNB held rates in September, inflation risks point to a hike at year-end (21 Sep 2026); ČSÚ: Consumer price indices – September 2026; ČNB: Bank Board decisions and meeting calendar.

Will the ČNB's November 2026 forecast put average Czech inflation in 2027 above 2.5%? Yes if the ČNB autumn 2026 forecast published with the 5 Nov 2026 decision (cnb.cz, Monetary Policy Report / forecast table) shows average annual CPI inflation for 2027 above 2.5%. No if 2.5% or lower, or if no forecast is published by 12 Nov 2026 23:59 CET. Deadline: Thursday 12 November, 23:59 CET.

The ČNB's summer forecast put 2027 inflation at exactly 2.5%, and since then September inflation has beaten its forecast, core inflation has stayed around 3%, the bank has said it expects inflation above 3% in early 2027 and the 2027 budget has turned out more expansionary than assumed, all pointing to an upward revision. An unchanged 2.5% would resolve the question negatively, and a higher assumed interest-rate path, fuel price regulation or a stronger koruna could keep the figure there.

History: 23/10 61%. Sources: BusinessInfo.cz: ČNB held rates in September, inflation risks point to a hike at year-end (21 Sep 2026); ČSÚ: Consumer price indices – September 2026; Ekonomický deník: MPs argue over dates; 2027 deficit 389 bn.

Will Czech consumer price inflation for October 2026 come in above September's 2.5%? Yes if the ČSÚ release of consumer price indices for October 2026 (scheduled for 10 Nov 2026) reports year-on-year CPI growth above 2.5%. The flash estimate of 4 Nov does not count. If the release is delayed beyond 13 Nov 2026 23:59 CET, the flash estimate is used. Deadline: Friday 13 November, 23:59 CET.

Prices rose 0.5% month on month in October 2025, a tough base, so October 2026 would need a monthly rise of roughly 0.6% to beat September's 2.5%, and the fuel price cap and diesel excise cut in force through October hit the very item that drove September's jump. A weaker koruna, regulated energy prices, a rebound in food prices or core inflation near 3.1% could still push the figure above 2.5%.

History: 23/10 28%. Sources: ČSÚ: Consumer price indices – September 2026; BusinessInfo.cz: ČNB held rates in September, inflation risks point to a hike at year-end (21 Sep 2026).

Will Prague's city assembly elect a STAN politician as mayor by 30 November 2026? Yes if the Prague city assembly elects as mayor (primátor) a member or nominee of STAN (e.g. Petr Hlaváček) by 30 Nov 2026 23:59 CET, as recorded on praha.eu or reported by ČTK. No if someone from another party is elected or no mayor is elected by then. Deadline: Monday 30 November, 23:59 CET.

STAN and Spolu hold 34 of the 65 seats, Spolu's Tomáš Portlík has conceded the mayoralty to STAN and Petr Hlaváček is named as mayor, with a two-party fallback if three-way talks with Praha sobě drag on. The main risk is timing: an election challenge, the one-seat majority or an adjourned constituent session, as in 2022 when the mayor was elected only in February 2023, could push the vote past 30 November.

The market asks who will be the next mayor with no deadline; our question also needs the election to happen by 30 November, and coalition talks in Prague have run long before.

History: 23/10 78%. Sources: Seznam Zprávy: Who will run Prague – four scenarios (11 Oct 2026); Seznam Zprávy: Praha sobě's backroom game (13 Oct 2026); CNN Prima News: Longest Prague coalition talks end (2023).

Will Czech year-on-year inflation for November 2026 reach 3.0% or more? Yes if the ČSÚ release of consumer price indices for November 2026 (December 2026) reports year-on-year CPI growth of 3.0% or more. If the full release has not appeared by 15 Dec 2026 23:59 CET, the ČSÚ flash estimate is used; if neither, no. Deadline: Tuesday 15 December, 23:59 CET.

The ČNB expects inflation to stay between 2% and 3% for the rest of 2026 and to exceed 3% only in early 2027, a path Erste, Patria and Creditas share, and October is expected to come in at around 2.2–2.5% because of a tough base and the fuel price cap. A favourable base from November 2025, when prices fell 0.3% month on month, and a rebound in fuel prices after the October cap expires could still lift November to 3%.

History: 23/10 26%. Sources: ČSÚ: Consumer price indices – September 2026; BusinessInfo.cz: ČNB held rates in September, inflation risks point to a hike at year-end (21 Sep 2026); Global Banking & Finance Review: ECB to hike in December as inflation almost doubles target.

Will the ČNB's two-week repo rate stand at 4.00% or higher after its 17 December 2026 meeting? Yes if, following the Bank Board decision of 17 Dec 2026 as published on cnb.cz, the two-week repo rate in effect is 4.00% or higher. Otherwise no. Deadline: Thursday 17 December, 23:59 CET.

The rate needs only one 25-basis-point hike at either the 5 November or the 17 December meeting, most analysts expect one in November, and Erste, Raiffeisen and the September minutes all name 4.0% as the likely peak. It would fall short only if the board holds at both meetings, for instance if energy prices ease and the dovish members Kubelková and Procházka prevail.

History: 23/10 75%. Sources: BusinessInfo.cz: ČNB held rates in September, inflation risks point to a hike at year-end (21 Sep 2026); ČNB: Bank Board decisions and meeting calendar; ČSÚ: Consumer price indices – September 2026.

Will the Chamber of Deputies approve the 2027 state budget bill in its third reading by 31 December 2026? Yes if the Chamber of Deputies' record of votes (psp.cz) shows the 2027 state budget bill approved in third reading on or before 31 Dec 2026 23:59 CET. Approval by the Senate or signature by the president is not required. Otherwise no (including if the bill is returned to the government and a new bill is not passed by the deadline). Deadline: Thursday 31 December, 23:59 CET.

The Chamber approved the 2027 budget's basic parameters in first reading on 22 October with 93 coalition votes after a 19.5-hour debate, every budget that cleared first reading in the past two terms went on to pass, and the third reading is scheduled for 2 December, four weeks before the deadline. The main risk is opposition obstruction or a revolt by SPD, two of whose MPs abstained, pushing the final vote past year-end.

History: 23/10 91%. Sources: Ekonomický deník: MPs argue over dates; 2027 deficit 389 bn; ČTK: Opposition wants budget returned with a deficit cap of 290 bn; ČT24: Deputies to continue the budget debate.

Will the Chamber of Deputies pass the government bill cutting unemployment benefits in its third reading by 31 December 2026? Yes if psp.cz shows the government amendment to the Labour Code and related laws that lowers unemployment benefits (approved in first reading on 20 Oct 2026) passed in third reading by 31 Dec 2026 23:59 CET, whether or not amended. No if it is rejected, withdrawn, or not voted on by then. Deadline: Thursday 31 December, 23:59 CET.

ANO and Motoristé hold only 93 of 200 seats without SPD, whose leader Okamura says it will not vote for the cuts, and the committee stage can run to about 19 December while the budget dominates the Chamber's November–December agenda. A compromise on a smaller cut, which Labour Minister Juchelka is seeking, combined with a faster timetable driven by the January start date and the CZK 5 billion of savings counted in the budget, could still get it through.

History: 23/10 37%. Sources: Echo24: Chamber backs cutting unemployment benefits (20 Oct 2026); Advokátní deník: Government approves bill cutting unemployment benefits.

Will the Czech government approve a bill introducing a special levy, tax or mandatory payment on banks by 31 January 2027? Yes if a government resolution published on vlada.cz (or the bill's entry in the government's eKLEP/ODOK register) shows the cabinet approved, by 31 Jan 2027 23:59 CET, a draft law imposing a sector-specific tax, levy, or mandatory transfer of profits or dividends on banks. Voluntary agreements with banks, or an increase in the general corporate tax rate, do not count. Deadline: Sunday 31 January, 23:59 CET.

No bank-levy bill exists: Schillerová said on 4 October that a bank tax was not on the table, Babiš talks only of negotiating mortgage prices with the banks, and his 2019 idea of a fund financed from bank dividends never became a cabinet bill. A quick dividend-transfer bill to raise budget revenue could still emerge, as the fast-moving refinery windfall tax showed, though a voluntary deal with the banks would not count.

History: 23/10 7%. Sources: Echo24: Banks are greedy, says Babiš, who wants to address mortgage prices; E15: Banks should hand over up to a fifth of dividends, Babiš plans; Ekonomický deník: MPs argue over dates; 2027 deficit 389 bn.